Q2 2026

Current Market Outlook

Constructive

European Equities

European equities remain attractive relative to US peers on a valuation basis. Earnings revisions are trending positive, supported by a resilient domestic economy and a stabilising manufacturing sector. We maintain an overweight stance with a focus on quality growth names.

Neutral

Fixed Income

With the ECB expected to hold rates through mid-2026, we see limited upside in sovereign bonds at current yields. Investment-grade credit spreads offer modest carry but limited compression potential. We favour shorter duration and selective high-yield exposure.

Watchful

Global Macro

Global growth continues at a moderate pace with dispersion across regions. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, requiring careful portfolio positioning. Currency hedging remains an important component of our risk management toolkit in this environment.

Latest Research

Recent Publications

In-depth analysis and thought leadership from our research desk.

April 2026 · Fraud & Compliance

Fake IDs Go Digital: The Rising Cost of Fraudulent Documents for Financial Institutions

AI-generated fake IDs are now sophisticated enough to pass first-generation verification checks. We break down how these synthetic documents are built, how modern verification systems catch them, and what regulators now expect from institutions onboarding investors at scale.

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April 2026 · Equity Research

European Tech: The Next Wave of Innovation

An analysis of emerging European technology companies that are challenging US incumbents in enterprise software, cybersecurity, and green technology. We identify five companies positioned to benefit from increasing European tech sovereignty.

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March 2026 · Macro Commentary

ECB Policy Path: Implications for Asset Allocation

Our macro team examines the likely trajectory of ECB monetary policy through 2026 and its implications for equity valuations, credit spreads, and optimal portfolio positioning across different rate scenarios.

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March 2026 · ESG Research

Carbon Transition: Winners and Losers

A comprehensive review of how European companies are adapting to increasingly stringent carbon regulations. We assess which sectors and companies are best positioned to benefit from the energy transition and which face structural headwinds.

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February 2026 · Strategy

Active vs Passive: The 2026 Scorecard

Our annual analysis comparing active fund performance against passive benchmarks across European markets. We examine why certain market conditions favour active management and where the greatest opportunities for alpha generation exist.

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January 2026 · Sector Analysis

European Healthcare: Undervalued Innovation

European pharma and medtech companies are trading at historically low valuations relative to their US peers despite strong pipeline innovation. We highlight opportunities in mid-cap biotech and medical device makers.

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January 2026 · Annual Outlook

2026 Annual Investment Outlook

Our comprehensive annual outlook covering macroeconomic forecasts, asset class views, sector preferences, and key risks for the year ahead. Includes specific portfolio positioning recommendations across all eight strategies.

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Market Data

Key Market Indicators

IndicatorCurrent1 Month AgoYTD ChangeOur View
STOXX Europe 600528.4519.7+7.2%Overweight
Euro Stoxx 505,1425,038+8.1%Overweight
EUR/USD1.08921.0815+1.4%Neutral
German 10Y Bund2.35%2.42%-18bpsUnderweight
ECB Main Rate3.25%3.25%UnchangedHold expected
EU IG Credit Spread108bps112bps-14bpsNeutral

Data as of 31 March 2026. Views represent ActiFund's current positioning and are subject to change.

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